Forecasting
Bio-marker driven patient pool sizing and forecasting
March 6, 20262.4K views
1
Objective
- Deep understanding of the market and segmentation of patient population to understand drivers for revenue growth
2
Approach
- Segment the patients based on histology and mutation types. Apply assumptions for adoption for each segment type allowing for a more rigorous forecast
- Validating biomarker testing rate assumptions with the use of chart audit data to incorporate real world insights into the model thus providing a more accurate evolution of patients over time
3
Outcome
- Drilled down the forecast into meaningful segments, which enabled us to answer questions related to the product strategy and messaging
- Forecast sensitivity increased due to the patients’ segments being modelled separately
- Analyzing the evolution of biomarker testing rates with the launch of new products helped us understand long term evolution of patient opportunities and forecast product adoption
4
Client Benefits
- Including the impact of testing rate evolution on the size of addressable pool helped them to come up with a proper valuation of the asset
- Helped identify different patient segments which added flexibility and rigor to the forecast
- The differential patient segments allowed for cross functional collaboration enabling pressure testing of forecast assumptions